Tuesday, November 4, 2008
3:18 PM
Careful with those exit polls
There's no sign yet of the early exit poll leaks that led some to believe John Kerry was headed to victory in 2004, but if they do leak early again, one Dem-leaning polling expert has 10 reasons they should be ignored.
Nate Silver, writing on his blog http://www.fivethirtyeight.com, says the polls consistently overstate the Democratic share of the vote, often end up with a non-random sample and have margins of error "somewhere between 50-90% higher than they would be for comparable telephone surveys."
Read his entire post for more.
-- By Staff
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