• WisPolitics


Tuesday, July 26, 2011

 2:32 PM 

Daily Kos puts out new polls in 2nd, 8th, 14th

The liberal website Daily Kos has released three new polls in Wisconsin's recall elections that find the GOP incumbents up in two, with the Dem challenger leading in one.

In the 2nd, the poll found 51 percent of those surveyed backed Sen. Rob Cowles, R-Green Bay, while 47 percent supported former Green Bay County Exec Nancy Nusbaum.

Cowles' job approval rating was 51 percent with 45 percent disapproving.

Forty-five percent had a favorable impression of Nusbaum, while 50 percent had an unfavorable view of her.

President Obama's approval rating split was 40-53, while Gov. Scott Walker's was 50-49.

The survey of 1,034 likely voters was conducted by the Dem firm Public Policy Polling Thursday through Sunday and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

In the 8th, Sen. Alberta Darling was backed by 52 percent, while 47 percent backed Rep. Sandy Pasch.

Darling, R-River Hills, had a job approval rating of 51-46, while those surveyed had a split view of Pasch, D-Whitefish Bay, with 47 having a favorable impression of her and 47 percent having a negative one.

Obama's job approval rating was 43-53, while Walker's was 51-48.

The survey of 1,476 likely voters was conducted Thursday through Sunday and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points.

In the 14th, the poll has Rep. Fred Clark, D-Baraboo, backed by 49 percent of those surveyed vs. 47 percent for Sen. Luther Olsen, R-Ripon.

Forty-nine percent disapproved of Olsen's job performance, while 46 percent approved.

Clark's favorable ratings were split 45-45.

Meanwhile, Obama's job approval split was 43-50 and Walker's was 46-51.

The poll of 871 likely voters was conducted Thursday through Sunday and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.

A spokesman for Senate Republicans questioned the poll's methodology and said he would have a more detailed response later this afternoon.

UPDATE:

John Hogan, executive director of the Committee to Elect a Republican Senate, raised questions about the poll’s methodology.

Hogan produced an analysis from his own pollster, B.J. Martino with the Tarrance Group, that pointed out the raw polling data in the 2nd and 4th don’t match the numbers Daily Kos reported. For example, the raw data in the 14th showed 48.2 percent supported Olsen, while 46.8 percent backed Clark.

Martino noted pollsters often weigh their data to match what they know about the electorate in a district, but asked how Public Policy Polling calculated that considering that decision changed the outcome on the ballot in the 14th. In the 2nd, the numbers were off slightly from what Daily Kos reported, but Cowles was still up.

Martino also noted PPP didn't appear to keep track of geographic data for respondents and questioned why it polled Thursday through Sunday, saying most pollsters used weekday evenings for field polls because that’s when most people are home.

David Nir with Daily Kos said the raw numbers in the 2nd and 14th didn't match because the numbers were weighted before they were reported, which he said was standard practice. He said Daily Kos is one of the few groups that releases its unweighted results and pointed out the accuracy with which PPP polled in Green Bay's 32nd SD ahead of last week’s recall election. In that race, PPP found 62 percent supported Dem Sen. Dave Hansen, while 34 percent backed GOP challenger David VanderLeest with 4 percent undecided. Hansen won 67-33.

-- By JR Ross

Labels:


Back to Election Blog main page

: See newer blog items : : See older blog items :

Election Blog site feed
Advertisement
Advertisement

wispolitics.com Social News

Follow Us

ABOUT THE BLOG

Updates from WisPolitics.com on primary and general elections in Wisconsin.

Editor: JR Ross
Reporters: Chris Thompson, David Wise

· Election Blog site feed

ELECTION LINKS

· Campaign ads
· Audio archive
· Government Accountability Board (state elections)
· Federal Election Commission (federal elections)

ARCHIVE

· February 2007
· April 2007
· February 2008
· March 2008
· April 2008
· September 2008
· October 2008
· November 2008
· February 2009
· April 2009
· February 2010
· March 2010
· April 2010
· September 2010
· November 2010
· February 2011
· March 2011
· April 2011
· May 2011
· June 2011
· July 2011
· August 2011
· September 2011
· October 2011
· November 2011
· December 2011
· January 2012
· February 2012
· March 2012
· April 2012
· May 2012
· June 2012
· July 2012
· August 2012
· September 2012
· October 2012
· November 2012
· December 2012
· January 2013
· February 2013
· March 2013
· April 2013
· June 2013
· July 2013
· August 2013
· September 2013
· October 2013
· November 2013
· December 2013
· January 2014
· February 2014
· March 2014
· April 2014
· May 2014
· June 2014
· July 2014
· August 2014
· September 2014
· October 2014
· November 2014
· December 2014
· January 2015
· February 2015
· March 2015
· April 2015
· May 2015
· June 2015
· July 2015
· August 2015
· September 2015
· October 2015
· November 2015
· December 2015
· January 2016
· February 2016
· March 2016
· April 2016
· May 2016
· June 2016
· July 2016
· August 2016
· September 2016
· October 2016
· November 2016
· December 2016
Copyright ©2012 WisPolitics.com All rights reserved. | WisOpinion.com | WisBusiness.com  |  Website development by wisnet.com LLC  | Website design by Makin’ Hey Communications