• WisPolitics


Wednesday, March 30, 2016

 12:28 PM 

Marquette poll: Cruz surges to GOP lead, Sanders moves ahead of Clinton

The latest Marquette University Law School Poll found Ted Cruz surging to the lead of the GOP presidential pack in Wisconsin and Bernie Sanders moving ahead of Dem rival Hillary Clinton.

The poll also found Justice Rebecca Bradley up on challenger JoAnne Kloppenburg and a dramatically narrowed U.S. Senate race between incumbent Ron Johnson, R-Oshkosh, and Dem Russ Feingold.

Forty percent of likely GOP primary voters said they backed Cruz, while 30 percent favored Donald Trump and 21 percent supported John Kasich. Trump led the previous poll at 30 percent, while March Rubio, who has since dropped out of the race, was at 20 percent and 19 percent backed Cruz.

On the Dem side, Sanders was backed by 49 percent of likely primary voters, while 45 percent supported Clinton. Last month, it was 44-43 Sanders, who has gradually gained in the poll since trailing by a dozen points in September. 

The survey came out of the field Monday, just as the flurry of presidential visits kicked up in Wisconsin and one day before Gov. Scott Walker endorsed Cruz.

In the state Supreme Court race, 41 percent of likely voters supported Bradley, while 36 percent supported Kloppenburg. Last month it was 37-36 for Bradley.

And in the Senate contest, 47 percent of registered voters backed Feingold, while 42 percent supported Johnson. In last month’s survey of registered voters, Feingold led 49-37.

The survey of 1,405 registered voters was conducted Thursday through Monday with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points. That sample also included: 956 likely voters for the April election with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points for that subset; 471 likely GOP primary voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 5.8 percentage points; and 405 likely Dem primary voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 6.3 percentage points.

The sample was 48 percent Dem, 44 percent Republican and 7 percent independent. The long-term average of the poll has been 47 percent Dem and 42 percent Republican.

Some results were posted online early and started to spread via Twitter. Franklin said it was a “slip on our part.”

See more in today's PM Update.

-- By JR Ross


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