• WisPolitics


Wednesday, July 13, 2016

 12:57 PM 

Clinton, Feingold still lead in latest Marquette University Law School Poll

Hillary Clinton continued to lead Donald Trump among Wisconsin voters in the latest Marquette University Law School Poll.

Still, the margin among those who say they will turn out this fall was cut in half compared to last month in a head-to-head match-up.

Dem Russ Feingold also continued to lead U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Oshkosh.

The latest poll found 43 percent of registered voters backed Clinton, compared to 37 who supported Trump. In June, that spread was 42-35.

Among likely voters, it was 45-41 for Clinton, compared to 46-37 last month.

Typically, Republican candidates do better among polls of likely voters compared to registered voters. But Clinton’s bigger lead among likely voters in June was seen as a sign GOP voters were not as enthused about voting for Trump as Dems for their presumptive nominee.

Still, a measure of enthusiasm changed slightly in the latest poll. In June, 78 percent of Republicans said they were sure to vote in November, while 80 percent said the same this month.

Among Dems, 84 percent said in June they were sure to vote in November, while 78 percent said the same in July.

Poll director Charles Franklin noted the survey went into the field two days after the FBI announced while Clinton had been extremely reckless with her use of private email during her time as secretary of state, she would not be charged.

Still, Franklin also pointed out opinions seem to be largely baked in for the two candidates. Twenty percent of registered voters said this month “honest” describes Clinton, while 68 percent said it did not. That’s the same margin as in June. For Trump, it was 32-62 in July and 33-61 the month before.

The poll also added in Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green candidate Jill Stein to the presidential race, though the margins didn’t change much.

Among registered voters, Clinton was at 40 percent, Trump 33, Johnson 10 and Stein 4. 

Among likely voters, Clinton was at 43, Trump 37, Johnson 8 and Stein 2.

In the Senate race, 48 percent of registered voters backed Feingold this month, compared to 41 percent for Johnson. In June, that was 45-41.

Among likely voters, the margin was 49-44 for Feingold this month, compared to 51-42 in June.

The poll was in the field Thursday through Sunday with interviews split evenly between cellphones and land lines. The sample of 801 registered voters had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. It included 665 likely voters, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

-- By JR Ross


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