• WisPolitics


Wednesday, August 10, 2016

 12:49 PM 

MU Law poll shows Clinton with a double-digit lead over Trump

Hillary Clinton opened up a double-digit lead on Donald Trump in the latest Marquette University Law School Poll, which was conducted after both national conventions and in the days after the GOP nominee initially declined to endorse House Speaker Paul Ryan.

Dem Russ Feingold also continued to lead U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson in their race.

Among registered voters, Clinton led 46 to 36 percent, up from 43-37 in July. Among likely voters, Clinton’s lead jumped to 52-37, compared to 45-41 a month ago.

Poll director Charles Franklin noted the 15-point margin was a “wow” but suggested it was in line with what should be expected considering the national environment. He said national polls have typically shown Clinton leading Trump by 7 or 8 points in the past week.

In 2008, Barack Obama won nationally by 7 points and Wisconsin by 14.

“If the national number is about 7-8, I’m fine with this 15 from a technical point of view, that this does seem in line with the kind of margin we saw here in ’08,” Franklin said. “Now, it’s a wide open question what happens here between now and November.”

Adding Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green candidate Jill Stein to the mix did not change Clinton’s lead much.

Among registered voters, it was 42-33 for Clinton, with Johnson at 10 and Stein at 4. Among likely voters, it was 47-34 for the Dem nominee with Johnson at 9 and Stein at 3.

In the Senate race, Feingold led Johnson among registered voters 49-43 compared to 48-41 a month ago. Among likely voters, Feingold’s lead jumped to 53-42, compared to 49-44 last month.

With Libertarian Phil Anderson added in, it was Feingold 47-38 with registered voters and Anderson at 7 percent. Among likely voters, it was 50-40 with Anderson at 7.

The poll of 805 registered voters was conducted Thursday through Sunday. In an interview with the Washington Post earlier in the week, Trump said he was not quite ready to support Ryan, R-Janesville. He later endorsed Ryan during a Friday rally in Green Bay.

That sample of registered voters had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points. The poll included 683 likely voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points for that group. The interviews were split equally between land lines and cellphones.

-- By JR Ross


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